Are Supply Chain Shortages Going to Worsen in 2023?

Observations From Shopping in Las Vegas

Because I just came back to the USA, to the same area of Las Vegas that I lived in before, after an absence of over two years, I’m in a good position to see changes in inventory and shelf storage that might have occurred more incrementally. Are we heading into a severe supply chain disruption in the USA in 2023? Inventories are definitely down.

These are my observations from errand running and Christmas shopping all at stores that I regularly frequented in 2020 and before. I’d say overall about 10% to 15% of people still wore facemasks in stores. It was pretty consistent no matter where I went and I saw people of all ages and races wearing them and also saw a vast majority of all ages and races who didn’t. It was crowded on the roads and I passed several car accidents while out driving. I’ve seen a few more ambulances than in the 2020 and before days but other than a spike in sirens at around almost midnight on Christmas it hasn’t been too crazy.

I’ve been ID’d for alcohol purchases most of the time. My Nevada driver’s license could never be renewed before I left due to Covid shutdowns (I have an International Driver’s license which sufficed in Thailand). I’ve had to carry around my passport and two clerks at one store argued about how to scan it: there’s some sort of new Nevada law starting on January 1 that the ID must be electronically scanned for all age restricted purchases in those that appear younger than the age of 40. They didn’t know how to scan a passport in their system.

I bristle at any electronic fencing of this type, but I guess I’ll take the win that I appear under 40. It’s still strange to me that I can buy beer at either 3 AM if I can’t sleep in order to try and cure my insomnia or at 3 PM because it’s Christmas Eve and I feel like it. In Thailand alcohol purchases were restricted to 11:00 AM to 2 PM and then 5 PM to midnight. Local shops ignored the afternoon rule but you weren’t going to find any of those open after midnight. There’s always something I suppose.

I loved how the older black cashier handled the age restriction screen at Wal Mart when I was buying Christmas gifts with my daughters. Wal Mart in my area was about 25% reduced in inventory.

“Are you over 21?” She asked me, arching her eyebrow.

“Well my daughter here is 16.” I responded, pointing to my girl. “If I am somehow not over 21, I’d say I deserve a drink anyways.”

The cashier laughed and punched some numbers into the system. She could have said I was born in 1900 for all that I cared. It’s just more electric fencing for the papers please society of tracking and collecting data.

Everybody seems to be hiring, with notices about this in Sam’s Town, the 99 Cents only store, Wal Mart, Home Depot and elsewhere. Lines were frequently long especially in El Super where I waited about an hour just to access the meat counter. The guy behind the counter spoke no English. I literally started speaking Thai. Poorly, I’m sure.

“Song kilo, goon.” He looked at me blankly. Work brain! I held up two fingers. Wait they use pounds here not kilograms…

“Dos libres?” He helped me through it. Yes those are the words! I pointed to the seafood area with the shrimp. “Dos libres camarones?” He questioned me.

“Si! Gracias!” I answered back. El Super had the best prices in town, if one was willing to brave the long waits. Was there an inflation in food prices? Definitely. But I could still manage to cook up some shrimp cocktail for New Year’s Eve at $3.99 per pound, which wasn’t awful pricing. I’d sayt hat store inventory is down about 20% since 2020. They moved a few aisles back, but the produce area was still bustling.

My older daughter has taken an extreme interest in cooking which I have been thrilled about. Almost every night has been spent cooking at home. I’ve made vegetarian larb, vegetarian sushi rolls, and vegetarian pasta alfredo. I had leftover food stamp EBT money from 2020 which had to be used. I went quickly from having no money for food in Thailand to wondering where I could find caviar. I’m also jealous of the vegan Smoked Gouda at Sprout’s. I’m wondering how they pulled it off so well.

So are there supply chain shortages? Inventory is definitely down. Here’s how much:

Gas stations: Circle K and Green Valley. Inventory is down in both stores about 40% from 2020. They eliminated some aisles, expanded the open area close to the front counter and the gaming area, and some things like hot dogs on the roller trays are simply not available. Despite both stores claiming to be open 24 hours the Green Valley was absolutely closed down one late night when my insomnia led to me seeking beer. Both have help wanted signs. Green Valley also changed their sliding glass doors to a much more security friendly they buzz you in late at night style.

Grocery stores: In both Smith’s and El Super inventory was down about 20% from 2020. Smith’s took a bigger hit in their produce aisle but have expanded their pharmacy section for some odd reason. The waits at Smith’s are about the same as in 2020 and before. El Super is understaffed and very active.

Independent stores: Both the Laos Market, which sells mostly Laotian and Thai food and is still run by the same family who has known us for many years; and an independent Hispanic run dollar store, were surprisingly well stocked. I’d say inventory is only down maybe 10%, if at all. The Filipino run Oriental Market is the only place I have seen so far that actually expanded. In Thailand I noticed a similar dynamic: the smaller local shops did not take an inventory hit. It was the 7 Elevens and Tesco’s that did. Those long form supply chains are killer.

Star Nursery runs a chain of garden stores in the Southwestern USA. I went in there on Christmas Eve for, of all things, bullshit. I’m serious. I was looking for steer manure. It’s good in the winter months in Las Vegas for keeping cold sensitive plants warm and I also like its dark color for aesthetic reasons. The place was so uncrowded that I was shocked that they were open at all. Who buys bullshit on Christmas Eve?

Their plant inventory was about the same as before, with some cold sensitive plants in a greenhouse. They had the best prices in town! Inflation? What inflation? I can buy chives and green onions for 25 cents!

There was no line as I’m pretty sure we were the only customers in the place. The staff was super friendly as always. We all need to be planting more stuff. Let God decide what should grow but at least put the seed in the ground.

Home Depot looked close to the same as before. There were no major inventory shortages though they had also moved aisles back so perhaps inventory was down 10%. There was no major price inflation my grout for the tiles cost perhaps 10% more than it would have in 2020.

Discount stores: There was total carnage here. The 99CentsOnly (except practically nothing costs 99 cents anymore) was the worst. I’d guess inventory was down 60% at least. Their produce section was pretty terrible and not fresh and since nothing costs 99 cents anymore there not discounted either. There used to be a small joy in going into 99CentsOnly stores and seeing something, whether it was overstocked wine or coconut oil or hummus, which you knew was deeply discounted to 99 cents. It’s gone now. The Dollar Tree likewise has raised prices to $1.25. It was better stocked with inventory only down about 30%. There were some long lines at Christmas but they are hiring! The Thrift Store was down close to 50% on inventory and had very long lines. This does not bode well.

I think in general there is a slow move towards less: less stuff, less availability, less choices, longer waits, and less freedom. My question is how do we fight back?

What are you seeing in your area? And what are your predictions for 2023?

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