Thailand's Demographic Collapse

Rising Deaths and Less Births in the Land of Smiles

Igor Chudov used to routinely present month on month datasets about drops in birth rates from various countries around the world. As my very first article on substack was regarding a drop in births in Thailand where I am based, I always wanted to add my part to the list, but I never could find the granular up to date data. That changed based on a link found on theCovidBlog where Brian Wilkins noted:

“Thailand recorded 270,454 births and 341,702 deaths from January to July 2022. In July alone, the country recorded 38,395 births, down 17% from July 2021.”

The database was in the link! Maybe he got a Thai girlfriend. I could use that with the occasional translation from my husband just to make sure I knew what I was looking at for sure. The Thailand statistics were very granular and updated monthly, unlike the USA’s disgustingly outdated find ways to hide the datasets thing that they do. What was hard to miss was the demographic collapse going on in Thailand so I decided to make a few charts.

Thailand has been updated to 320,102 births and 395,972 deaths now from January through August of 2022. There is a huge gender disparity in the death numbers (223,362 male versus 172,610 female) though that was true in years past as well. I checked this against the first 8 months of 2019 the total deaths then were 336,065. In 2020 the total deaths through August were less at 331,213. In 2021 the deaths through August jumped to 369,074. Keep in mind that the Covid “vaccines” were only rolled out in March and April of 2021. Most of that was Chinese made Sinovac, which some have argued is safer and more traditional than mRNA “vaccines” Through my on the ground experience I have never believed that ANY of these jabs are “safe.” Astra Zeneca Covid jabs were also rolled out early on, but I don’t know if they pulled back availability. Pfizer vaccines came up in the fall of 2021 (after my first eight month of the year analysis) and were pushed for the booster campaign and also on teens returning to school. So Thailand was a mixed and match shot country and got in my opinion the worst of both worlds.

I decided to only analyze January through August of the years 2019 through 2022. This does partially help with monthly variations and was done for simple consistency as 2022 data is only through August.

So going through the tables on deaths in 2020 (the pandemic year of Covid) they actually were slightly lower than they were from my baseline in 2019. They jumped 11.4% from 2020 and another 7.3% in the first eight months from 2021 through 2022. That’s a total of 19.6% rise in the death rates since 2020!

Graphically this looks like this:

The Bangkok Post ran an article recently about the Smart families, er, demographic destruction. The article was barely readable, and the comments were from acrimonious expats. The article included lines like this tidbit:

“In 2020, Thailand had a fertility rate of 1.24, which is below the replacement rate of 1.6.”

This comment falls into the category of a bold faced lie. The replacement fertility rate is traditionally 2.1, which is the number of children that a woman needs to have to replace the current population. It accounts for the fact that the other half of the population is men WHO DO NOT GIVE BIRTH TO BABIES, and also tragically accounts for the (hopefully very small) percent of children who do not survive to adulthood to reproduce. Yes I do understand the built in momentum of having a very young population due to a high birthrate before, but that is an entirely different thing and is not the case in Thailand. Replacement fertility can go higher than 2.1 in countries with very high childhood and infant mortality, but it cannot go below 2.0 and replace the current population. As best I can tell trans person’s neo vaginas need to be kept open regularly, much like an ear piercing that will close if no earrings are added, which should indicate that the body sees it as an open wound that it tries to close. We are a long way off from men having babies in any population altering way. According to Google there have been 16 successful live births after a uterine transplant. All were in people born as biological women.

So then we come to the other side of demographics, which is the birth rate in Thailand. That Bangkok Post article also said that the number of births is approaching the number of deaths. It looks like it’s already there.